Q1 2025 Market Conditions Report
by Phil Bartkowski and Tim Jed
41 minute read
by Phil Bartkowski and Tim Jed 41 minute read
Our Q1 2025 Market Conditions report summarizes current market conditions, industry trends, and mitigation strategies to make more informed business decisions in the quickly changing construction landscape.
Industry Insights An Evolving Situation
We’ve had a pretty good run of optimism in this report over the past few quarters, so why stop now?
Given the rapidly evolving administrative situation, there comes a point where we must stop adjusting the numbers. It is now time to share what we know to date. Markets rise and fall, technologies boom and bust, policies change, yet here we are again with a general sense of Great Things on the horizon for 2025. We have a stable mix of recently awarded work by Core Market (Healthcare, Advanced Technology, Life Sciences, Commercial, Higher Education) and several of these sectors are primed to exceed our annual work-in-place and sales projections from 2024.
Most industry publications like Engineering News Records, Dodge Construction and the Cumming Group, continue to project a positive outlook. Construction spending is on the rise, and even if the American Institute of Architects (AIA) is projecting a less than optimal trend on Architectural billings wrapping up 2024, we are in a season of building. But how long will it last?
We know what’s on your mind…
Welcome to 2025. The U.S. has a new President, who immediately signed some 20+ executive orders within hours of being sworn in, and a new administration is following closely behind. Varying opinions aside, what can we extract out of the last month with our new U.S. administration? It’s hard to tell, but there are several areas we should pay attention to based on orders issued by the President, from his January inauguration date until February 10th.
Let’s take a look at some of these initial executive orders and determine what we should be monitoring.i
What is an Executive Order?
First of all, what is an “Executive Order”?
For centuries now, the President of The United States of America is granted the authority to execute Executive Orders. This is a mechanism for the President to implement authoritative direction within the Executive branch of the U.S. Government.
These orders are not required to pass through the U.S. Senate and generally has the same effect as a federal law circumstantially, though Congress can pass a new law to override a specific executive order. Future administrations, as well, can overturn the order. As we are seeing right now, the Federal Courts can block or overturn an executive order if it is found to be against any law or deemed unconstitutional.
PLUS
- Increase domestic production of key commodities and result in less reliance on imports and external supply chain needs, potentially lowering costs.
- We don’t currently have a dependence on Canada for lumber supply.
- New tariffs on Canada are paused until March.
DELTA
- Tariff related cost increases may be felt at the jobsite if projects are reliant on materials imported from Canada.
| TITLE | DATE ISSUED | |
|---|---|---|
Imposing Duties to Address the Flow | February 1, 2025 |
SYNOPSIS
This order is primarily targeted at managing illicit drugs coming into the U.S. via the Canadian border. Claiming that Canada has not effectively managed drug trafficking into the U.S., President Trump has imposed a 25% tariff on Canadian goods and 10% on energy resources coming into the U.S. It’s stated that if sufficient action is taken, the tariffs could be lifted, and if not, further action may be directed by the U.S. Government. As this is being written, word has come out that these tariffs are on a temporary hiatus.
CONSTRUCTION IMPACT POTENTIAL
If your project relies heavily on Canadian imports, consider factoring in cost contingencies. The U.S. has had a trading deficit with Canada since 2023 (roughly -$70B). Top imports from Canada to the U.S. related to our industry include crude oil ($97B), petroleum gases ($14B), petroleum oils ($13B), aluminum ($7B), trucks ($6B), and sawn wood ($5.5B).
While Canada is the biggest supplier of oil to the U.S., will this be offset by the “Drill Baby Drill” mantra of Trump’s energy independence platform? Oil / petroleum fuels just about everything, so will we feel it on the jobsite? How far down the supply chain is that? We are talking about 25% on the bulk purchase of a commodity that is used on, or to get to, every jobsite.
What about lumber? Canada counts for a substantial 30% of our imported wood products. That said, the U.S. produces about 60% of its own lumber as a $100B industry. Canada exports about $5B of lumber to the states, so it will be a hit, but doesn’t seem to be too catastrophic for most commercial work?
Continue to look at source materials strategically, explore domestic alternatives, and lock in pricing early.
PLUS
- More AI, more data; more data centers, more building.
DELTA
- Where is all this power coming from? This is a significant demand on our electrical infrastructure and power availability.ii
| TITLE | DATE ISSUED | |
|---|---|---|
Removing Barriers to American | January 23, 2025 |
SYNOPSIS
An attempt to keep the U.S. at the forefront of the AI game by placing a 180-day request to key advisors that they will establish a plan to enhance the U.S. policy for sustaining a globally dominant AI position. Combined with the administration’s new President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST), there is a clear interest in advancing this field.
CONSTRUCTION IMPACT POTENTIAL
While not all data centers are dedicated to the AI space, there is no doubt that this AI boom has created a demand like we’ve never seen before. DPR builds for companies that are leading the charge in this space. If policies lead to investments and enabling legislature allows for scale to occur at an even faster pace, we could see a continued acceleration of an already rapidly growing advanced technology trend.
PLUS
- Could the focus on permitting at a federal level trickle down to the local level for our projects?
- Have the efforts around building more sustainably already made a significant enough impact to continue to influence the AEC industry?
DELTA
- Will there be environmental impacts related to these revoked orders and refocus on U.S. energy independence?
- How will these changes affect funding, incentives, and regulations for future projects?
| TITLE | DATE ISSUED | |
|---|---|---|
Unleash American Energyiii | January 20, 2025 |
SYNOPSIS
The stated goal is to fully leverage our domestic and natural energy resources to build up the supply and infrastructure for the U.S. economic stability and national security. This is a lengthy executive order that hits on emergency approvals, development of infrastructure, and the voiding of previous administration's efforts and orders surrounding renewable energy and associated funding reallocations. Avoiding the general focus on production of traditional energy sources, what could this impact at a jobsite level?
CONSTRUCTION IMPACT POTENTIAL
LEED and “Green” buildings aren’t going anywhere. Owners have recognized the positive impacts of a more sustainable workplace and the economy of long-term sustainability strategies. Local building codes have adopted some of these strategies, and architects and engineers are designing to these expectations as a default. This order calls for the revocation of the “EV mandate,” along with a multitude of other past Presidential orders surrounding climate change, the nation’s forests, and federal regulations surrounding such development efforts. With these efforts potentially sunsetting with the federal government, will business owners maintain a path of their own accord? Have they already adopted what was once regulated by law?
The biggest potential win of this order is Section 5, where “Efficient Permitting” is discussed at length. Primarily targeting the ability to advance the permitting process, making it more streamlined and faster, this section wants to remove delays and ambiguity for these projects. There is even a call to expedite Federal permits: “Agencies shall work closely with project sponsors to realize the ultimate construction or development of permitted projects.” If permitting acceleration trickles down to local levels, projects could move faster, reducing holding costs and delays. If efficiency gains are in the air, we are here for it!
There is a host of details inside the orders, but those are a few key extracts.
PLUS
- Will U.S. production and competitiveness see a spark here to meet a potential demand?
DELTA
- With so many goods imported from China, it will be really hard to assess the impact. This could have a very broad impact on an array of smaller items on your job.
- If you are planning on sourcing Chinese steel on your upcoming job, you might want to start assessing your options.
| TITLE | DATE ISSUED | |
|---|---|---|
Imposing Duties to Address the Synthetic Opioid | February 1, 2025 |
SYNOPSIS
An attempt to curb the flow of opioids into the U.S., an additional 10% tariff is imposed on all Chinese products.
CONSTRUCTION IMPACT POTENTIAL
In case you are unaware, China regularly produces products at a cheaper price that can undercut a state-side supplier, but they also offer incredible production power and infrastructure. Everything from jobsite tools to air-handler motors to electrical wire to faucets to iron pipe is imported every day into the U.S. from China.
It’s important to note that while this impact can be significant, it’s more interesting to really look at the supply chain on your job. Check your specifications. Know your flow of material.
Will the low-price per unit from China production be offset by this duty applied to the material? It really depends.
If a faucet manufactured in China with a MSRP of $100/unit—and a 10% duty—you got it…$110/unit off the boat. What’s your alternative locally? Is there a comparable faucet in the U.S. for $105/unit that we can align on? Is the extra $5/unit worth it to preserve the design? Possibly. 500 faucets multiplied by $10 isn’t chump-change but is $5,000 a deal breaker on a 500 bed hospital?
So, can the U.S. production exceed the quality and beat the value of our China competition? Ongoing dialogue about customer priorities will help our teams align around what defines value for each project.
Industry Insights Hurry Up and Wait
Even as we write this, some of these things are being contested in court, countries are responding to the tariff demands, and orders are being put on hold. We are staying informed and not immediately jumping to any definitive conclusions. These orders are being issued at a record-pace and most of them will take months to see the outcome.
Our frontline teams will have the direct pulse of these impacts project by project, which is the only way to understand, “How will this impact my job?”
DPR is here to offer additional expertise and understand these issues. We are not going to be reactionary. That’s not to say these orders will not be enacted; rather, we will see exactly how they pan out on a particular project. Specifically, though, if these tariffs become law and we are past the point of shifting from material suppliers overseas, there could be a very real impact on imported goods.
When we understand our supply chain and are engaging with our customers to identify potential pain points early, we are empowered to make strategic decisions.
Supply Chain What’s New: Eggflation, Red Food, Donut Drought, and Baguette Ransoms
As we enter 2025, we are one quarter of the way through the century in a year that also represents a perfect square root. It seems like just yesterday we were concerned that our computers wouldn’t survive the “Y2K” bug. The outbreak of a different bug, the Avian Bird Flu, killed 20 million of the 378.5 million U.S. egg-laying hens in the U.S. in the 4th quarter alone of last year (about 5.3%). This has stressed the egg supply chain and caused a 39% year-over-year surge in pricing.1 2 Red Dye no. 3 was banned in January, leaving makers of Airheads, candy corn, Pez, and strawberry milk to identify an alternative product and supply chain for the coloring.3 Dunkin ran out of certain types of its donuts for a time in early January.4 And it was reported that Schneider Electric suffered a hacker attack where the ransom was demanded in baguettes (not the diamond ring type), $125,000 worth.5
The stock market had a strong year in 2024, with the S&P 500 having one of its best years ever, up around 25%. Analysts from Bankrate foresee continued growth in 2025 but slowing to around 7% — solid, but not like the last two years.6 The Federal Funds Rate has continued to drop since August of 2024,7 brought about by improvements in the inflation rate, which hit a low of 2.4% in September, but inflation has ticked up monthly since then and now sits at 3% for January.8 However, when food and energy are removed from the inflation calculation, as they vary sharply from month to month, the rate actually ticked down slightly. Coupled with strong bank profits, it caused the stock markets to surge the day it was reported.9 The concern now is that these improvements in inflation could reverse if U.S. tariffs are imposed, which could delay further rate cuts by The Fed.10
The civilian unemployment rate has been hovering around 4% since early 2024,11 with strong results reported for December at 256,000 jobs added, bringing the total number added in 2024 to 2.2 million.12 This news is tempered in an article related to construction employment from Construction Dive, with Macrina Wilkins, senior research analyst for the Associated General Contractors of America, highlighting a trend of fewer job openings for the last four months, saying: “While the industry is still adding jobs, growth has slowed significantly,” further noting that “This decline underscores ongoing workforce challenges — such as firms struggling to find and hire qualified workers — likely combined with increasing uncertainty about what 2025 will bring.”13 According to Associated Builders and Contractors, the industry needs to attract an estimated 501,000 additional workers over the pace of hiring in 2024.14
U.S. Unemployment and Anticipated Construction Hiring
In the construction supply chain, things have improved and seem to have returned to a more normal state, but apprehension remains. A recent AEC SmartBrief survey reflected the biggest concerns are labor shortages, inflation and material prices, and supply chain volatility.15 GEP’s Global Supply Chain Volatility Index, which models supply chain pressure with input from 27,000 companies in 40 countries, is on the rise in all regions except Europe, indicating a tightening of supply chain, citing stockpiling of goods and materials to guard against tariffs in the U.S. and growth in Chinese manufacturing.16
But overall, contractors remain positive. AGC’s survey of 1,100 contractors showed optimism about the economy — 69% expected to add staff in 2025, compared to only 10% who anticipate headcount to decline.17 In an article from Construct Connect, several economists offered their insights on the state of the industry. Here are some of their observations:
- Spending is up, but expected to slow in 2025 to around 5% to 5.5% increase (Kermit Baker, Chief Economist for the American Institute of Architects)
- More than 90% of contractors reported trouble filling positions in 2024, up from 80% in 2023 (Ken Simonson, Chief Economist for the Associated General Contractors of America)
- Bidding was up by about 5% in 2024 (Kristy O’Brien, ConstructConnect’s Director of Content Acquisition)
- Expect to see more hotels, stores, and military projects in 2025 (Michael Guckes, ConstructConnect's Chief Economist)18
So where are things headed and what can we expect related to the construction supply chain?
There is uncertainty in domestic policy, global instability, extreme weather events, and supply and demand imbalances that are all part of the current landscape. Let’s take a look at these items and consider some of the potential impacts as they develop.
Market Conditions
Dashboard
Check out our current conditions interactive dashboard.
Supply Chain World: Geopolitical, Raw Materials, Trade Routes, and Climate
We have a new administration in the U.S., which could influence the construction industry through its policies on tariffs, tax cuts, deregulation, and immigration policy.19 In the last few months we’ve seen France,20 Austria,21 Germany,22 and Canada23 all have unexpected turnover of their sitting governments, largely for economic reasons. South Korea’s President, Yoon Suk Yeol, has been impeached and arrested after attempting to implement martial law in that country in early December.24
There is continued instability in the Middle East. Syria’s leader, Bashar al-Assad, has been ousted, without a clear path forward of leadership for that nation.25 After a two-year vacancy, Lebanon has elected a president.26 Yemen’s Houthi rebels have attacked more than 134 ships and sunk two in the Red Sea since late 2023.27 28 But there is a now a ceasefire in place between Lebanon and Israel, and between Israel and Gaza,29 30 in which the Houthis have indicated they will limit their attacks in the Red Sea to only Israeli-affiliated ships,31 but with the White House now redesignating the Houthis as a terrorist organization, further outcomes are difficult to predict.32
Even as the U.S. experienced extreme cold temperatures in January,33
causing record snowfalls in the south34
and trapping a 663-foot freighter in ice on Lake Erie,35
warming weather patterns have started to make key natural resources accessible in countries within the Arctic Circle, like Greenland. This has created competition between nations interested in those reserves, including Russia, China, and the U.S. In January, there was a bill introduced in the U.S. House to allow the incoming U.S. president to: "seek to enter into negotiations with the Kingdom of Denmark to secure the acquisition of Greenland by the United States."36 But this does not seem like something Denmark is currently considering,37 and Chinese stakeholders already own claims to Greenland's large rare earth deposit 'Kvanefjeld,' which has vast amounts of uranium.38
The Artic Circle is also important to potential new trade routes, with Greenland in a key location for China's 'Polar Silk Road,'39
a plan to expand China’s economic influence as part of their 2013 Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) which includes trade and logistics investment in more than 150 countries and organizations.40
This new ‘Trans Arctic Shipping Route’ would save an additional two days of travel time and reduce fuel consumption by an estimated 40%.41
Map: The Polar Silk Road
The four major transatlantic maritime routes opening up by Arctic ice melting.
For land routes, China’s desire to expand its geopolitical influence through trade dependence has it preparing for various scenarios in the event of a prolonged war between Russia and Ukraine, constructing a railway from China to Europe, bypassing the current rail that runs through Russia.42
U.S. intelligence believes that by 2027 there will be an attempt by China to make Taiwan part of the PRC, with the assumption that this will include some degree of armed conflict.44 Taiwan is a critical ally of the U.S. for many goods and fabricates nearly one third of the world’s semiconductors, and is the eighth-largest U.S. importer of goods ($44 billion) and the tenth-largest U.S. exporter ($40 billion).45 It also has a critical logistics route. In 2022, nearly half of the world’s 5,400 container ships passed through the Straits of Taiwan.46 Having control over Taiwan could further bolster China’s influence over the global supply chain for both products and logistics. Outgoing FBI Director Christopher Wray characterized China as the "biggest long-term threat to our economic and national security."47 Elsewhere, in Congo, there are internal conflicts for control of minerals like copper and cobalt, which are also of interest to both China and the U.S.48
Why is this important?
Instability can affect the supply chain. China, Russia, and the Middle East are significant suppliers of many raw materials, with China and Russia being #1 and #4 respectively for rare earth elements (16 materials used for items like magnets, polishing powders, metals, glass, ceramics, batteries, petroleum refining, and electronics), with a combined total of 48% of the world’s reserves. They are also significant producers of many of the world’s critical minerals, which are materials that are essential to the economy (like Gallium, Magnesium, and Tungsten). On February 4th, China announced it would curb exports of strategic materials in response to new U.S. tariffs against China.49 Russia, Iran, and China are ranked 1, 5, and 6 respectively in natural resources:50
- #1 Russia: Coal, oil, natural gas, gold, timber, and rare earth metals
- #5 Iran: The fifth-largest crude oil producer in OPEC and the world’s second-largest natural gas producer. Other natural resources include coal, chromium, copper, iron ore, lead, manganese, zinc, and sulfur.
- #6 China: 90% of China’s resources are coal and rare earth metals. Other natural resources include timber, oil, natural gas, gold, aluminum, and critical minerals. China also produces 54% of the world’s steel, and 57% of the world’s glass.
Map: Rare Earth Element Reserves
China and Russia have a combined total of 48% of the world’s rare earth element reserves.
Supply Chain Industry Outlook: Material Prices, Lead Times, and Softening Steel
Currently, pricing has normalized, and materials are readily available, with the notable exceptions of mineral wool insulation, switchgear, semiconductors and certain gauges of copper wiring, but upcoming tariffs could affect this. Aluminum, light fixtures, insulation, lumber, electrical equipment, and semiconductors have seen steady price increases over the past year. The Cumming Group is predicting that the wildfires in Southern California, which destroyed some 10,000 homes, will impact materials like wood and concrete.51 Steel and steel related products are down YOY nearly 17% as of January52 but it is anticipated they will rise with the recently announced tariffs.
Iron ore prices are projected to decline in 2025 due to weak steel demand and ample supply. China's economic slowdown and the possibility of tariffs and other regulatory measures are limiting market demand for ore. The upcoming Simandou mine in Guinea will increase ore supply further when it opens in 2025.53 Lower steel pricing has created instability for several mills and fabricators of steel products.
U.S. Steel has been facing challenges with weakened pricing and softening markets. In 2023 their revenue fell 14% and profits fell 65%.54 Nippon Steel proposed an offer to buy U.S. Steel which was blocked in early January by the U.S. Administration, citing national security concerns, but this was challenged and there is now a time extension for reconsideration through June of this year.55 Last September U.S. Steel’s CEO said the company will likely close some of its steel mills if the proposed sale to Nippon Steel doesn’t proceed.56 There is continued interest from Nippon Steel in pursuing U.S. Steel, as well as interest from Cleveland-Cliffs, Nucor,57 and private equity Ancora Holdings Group.58 President Trump has voiced his support for Nippon to invest in U.S. Steel, but not as a majority shareholder.59
Other steel companies are having issues as well. Posco shut down a rod mill in South Korea,60
and ArcelorMittal temporarily halted production of wire rod at its Verinha, Gijon facility in Spain.61
In the U.S., Liberty Steel temporarily halted operations in a wire mill in Illinois furloughing 500 workers,62
and Zemelman Industries’ Wheatland Tube plant in Chicago closed, affecting 237 people.63
Each of these companies blamed low demand and falling prices.64
U.S. companies are pointing to oversupply caused by increased imports from low cost countries that are exempt from existing steel tariffs or have quota exceptions (including Canada, Mexico, Australia, Argentina, Brazil, South Korea, the EU, Japan, and the United Kingdom).65
So how would new tariffs affect this? Would they help or would they hurt?
Nucor has spoken out in support, but others are wary.66 Let’s take a closer look at the implications of the tariffs the new U.S. Administration has signaled.
Supply Chain Tariffs: Pros, Cons, and Implications
The current situation is that new tariffs on Mexico and Canada are paused until March, there is a tariff increase of 10% on Chinese goods and a 25% global tariff on steel and aluminum. Opponents say that tariffs will increase pricing, slow growth, fuel inflation, cause disruptions to the supply chain, and may create trade wars. Supporters believe they are a necessary step to protect American industries, increase federal revenue, bring manufacturing back to the US, and prevent job loss.67
First, let’s lay out a bit of history on tariffs over the last two administrations. In 2018 and 2019, tariffs were placed on imports of washing machines and solar panels (Section 201), steel and aluminum (Section 232), and billions of dollars’ worth of consumer, intermediate, and capital goods from China (Section 301). The tariffs generated about $80 billion a year in additional taxes, and most tariffs imposed in 2018 and 2019 were maintained or expanded by the following administration,68 with some exceptions and exclusions for certain countries for steel, aluminum, solar panels, and washing machines (which expired in 2023).69
Chart: Trade War Tariff Comparison
More trade war tariffs have been collected under the Biden administration than under Trump’s first administration.
Total Duties assessed under Section 201, 232, and 301, in Billions.
From 2018 through March of 2024, it is estimated that total tariffs collections were $233 billion,70 with those tariffs ultimately paid by the consumer in the form of higher prices, whether a person or a company. Looking back at the impact of the tariffs, economists from the Federal Reserve have noted that there has been a net negative impact due to rising costs, retaliatory tariffs, and an overall decrease in U.S. manufacturing employment when looking at all sectors taken together (i.e. not only those with tariffs applied). States with more exposure to tariffs experienced lower increases in employment.71
Note: It is not clear how the new tariff policies will affect the ruling on October 30, 2024, in which the U.S International Trade Commission (ITC) issued a decision that countervailing and anti-dumping cases for the aluminum extrusions will be terminated, and all duties that had been collected by the U.S. Customs and Border Protection will be refunded to importers for the following nations: China, Colombia, Ecuador, India, Indonesia, Italy, Malaysia, Mexico, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, United Arab Emirates, and Vietnam.72
A Look at existing tariffs, including 2024 increases:
| Semiconductors | 50% |
| Solar cells (assembled into modules) | 50% |
| Batteries: | |
| Lithium-ion EV batteries | 25% |
| Lithium-ion non-EV batteries | 7.5% (set to increase to 25% in 2026) |
| Battery parts | 25% |
| Aluminum products | 10%* |
| Steel and aluminum products | 25%* |
| *Exceptions for Canada, Mexico, Australia; allowed quotas Argentina, Brazil, South Korea, the EU, Japan, and the United Kingdom) |
The White House is signaling the following revisions to tariffs, with responses of retaliatory tariffs being reported:73
- Chinese Goods: Additional 10% tariff.74 In response, China has announced tariffs against the U.S., but more importantly, on 2/4 they have moved to curb exports on tungsten, tellurium, bismuth, indium, and molybdenum, used in various industrial, electronic, military, medical, and alloy applications.75
- Steel and Aluminum: 25% global tariff (it is not yet clear how this will impact prior exemptions or quotas noted above).76
- Mexico: 25% tariff, but this is now paused until early March.77
- Canada: 25% tariff, with 10% on Energy, but this is now paused until early March.78
- Blanket Tariff: TBD, but prior statements reported a potential of 10% tariff on all other imports,79 with recent clarifications that target copper, pharmaceuticals and computer chips may also be on the way.80
- Reciprocal Tariffs: TBD, but announced February 7th to match other countries tariff rates for imports from the U.S.81
The largest importers of products that are shipped into the U.S. are Mexico, China and Canada,82 and we would expect tariffs to raise prices on a wide range of products, like electronics, consumer goods, and luxury items. The price of laptops and tablets could rise by as much as 46%, and smartphone prices could increase by 26%.83 Here is a list of construction-related products imported into the U.S. in high volumes from Mexico, China, and Canada:84
- Mexico: Trucks, computers, crude oil, insulated wire/cable, tractors, A/C, appliances, electrical converters, lower-voltage switches/fuses, electrical machinery, motors, generators, pumps,85 and others.
- China: Electrical products, machinery, boilers, furniture, lighting, plastics, iron and steel, chemicals, tools, paper, aluminum, rubber, glass, ceramic, wood products,86 rare earth elements and critical minerals,87 and others.
- Canada: Crude oil, petroleum gases, aluminum, trucks, precious metals, furniture, copper wire, wood,88 and others.
Ken Simonson, Chief Economist of the AGC told Construction Dive that “Costs are likely to rise much faster in 2025,” then went on to add “Many other construction materials are likely to experience sudden price increases if President Trump follows through on his threats to impose steep tariffs.”89
Chart: U.S. Import/Export Partner Comparison
The US imported more than it exported to 15 of its top 20 trade partners in 2023
US exports and imports by country, 2023 (in billions USD)
Let’s take a look at how tariffs could affect pricing.
Drywall is made of gypsum, paper, energy, water, chemicals/additives, and transportation. Drywall used in the western U.S. uses predominately natural gypsum rock, much of it supplied from Mexico. The rock accounts for about 20% of the material input costs. If there was a 25% tariff on gypsum coming from Mexico, it would impact the price of drywall from the manufacturer by about 5%, so by the time this goes through the two additional steps of the supply chain with added markups (i.e., the distributor to subcontractor and subcontractor to general contractor), the material increase would be around 7%. When looking at the impact to a subcontractor’s turnkey bid, assuming that about 41% of the subcontractor’s bid is material (keeping in mind only part of the material cost is wallboard), this would impact the total cost less than 3%.
A Look at Tariff's Effect on Pricing: Drywall
| Item | Amount | Comments |
| Material Costs - Original | $100 | |
| % Gypsum | 20% | |
| Material Cost - Gypsum | $20 | |
| Material Cost - Gypsum | $20 | |
| Proposed Tariff – Mexico | 25% | |
| Material Costs - Increase | $5 | |
| Material Costs – Original | $100 | |
| Material Costs – Increase | $5 | |
| Material Costs – New | $105 | 5% increase |
| Additional Cost - Markups Applied | $6.61 to $7.20 | 2 additional steps at 15% - 20% Impact to Installed |
| Subcontractor Bid | 2.71% to 2.95% | Assuming 41% material |
If a trade war started resulting from new tariffs, this could create price and availability challenges as well. Siloxane, an important additive for drywall production, relies heavily on China, which supplies more than half of its ingredients.
Manufacturers are already adapting. Steve Madden announced it would reduce its Chinese production of shoes by 50% to avoid the new tariffs,90 and many other companies are assessing the same types of changes, realigning global supply networks, to guard against heightened tariffs.91
As these policies become clear, what are some of the things we can do to help alleviate the impact?
- Maintain awareness and engage in proactive, transparent conversations.
- Understand your supply chain and where things come from.
- Be flexible and consider alternative materials if practicable.
- Consider accelerating delivery if it is viable and helps avoid an impact.
- Keep in mind that even if products are domestically produced, tariffs could still affect costs or lead times for a variety of reasons.
Supply Chain Transportation: Bridges, Freight Theft, and Trucking Declines
Work has begun to rebuild Baltimore's Key Bridge after its collapse in 2024, with an expected completion in 2028 at a cost of $2 billion.92 This is crucial for improving freight efficiency in the region, which has been hindered by the collapse. Meanwhile, U.S. infrastructure is facing challenges, with many bridges rated as “fair” and concerns about funding for repairs.93 Ocean container rates have risen due to disruptions like the Lunar New Year shutdown and Houthi attacks in the Red Sea.
The Suez Canal is an important route between the Red Sea and Mediterranean Sea, and accounts for 10-15% of world trade and 30% of global container shipping volumes.94 Ocean carriers have been rerouting vessels around the Southern tip of Africa to avoid attacks (instead of the shorter trip through the Red Sea and Suez Canal) which has added up to two weeks and one million dollars more per vessel.95 With the Yemeni Houthis likely ceasing attacks on non-Israeli vessels in the Red Sea, there could be a return to shipping in the region by other countries. This would increase speed and reduce cost, but there is also concern that this shift could cause accelerated arrivals and backups at ports creating a “severe disruption.”96 But this may be moot, as the Houthis have indicated they would attack U.S. vessels again if there is an attempt to remove Palestinians in Gaza by force.97 The White House has indicated an interest in the U.S. taking back control of the canal, which Panama owns and operates, citing strategic importance and rising prices.98
Trucking faced significant challenges in 2024, including a 27% rise in cargo theft year over year, weather disruptions, and a “freight recession” due to too many trucks and too little freight.99 The Key Bridge collapse added delays, and truckers in New York City faced added costs for entering the Central Business District. Trucking job losses were significant, with 41,000 fewer jobs compared to 2022, though average hourly wages rose above $30 for this first time.100 Fuel costs could increase if a tariff is put in place on Canada. 24% of U.S. crude refinery throughput in 2023 came from Canada, so a 10% tariff could have a significant impact on fuel costs.101 This could be offset, however, with the recent executive order increasing access to drilling within the U.S.102
Supply Chain Ever-Forward: AI, Data Centers, Technology, Infrastructure, and Investment
AI continues to fuel construction and infrastructure demand. JLL reported that it expects continued data center growth through 2027 of 15-20%.103 In January, President Biden signed the “AI Executive Order” to allow data centers and clean energy facilities on federal land to bolster AI development,104 however, this order was rescinded by the incoming administration on January 20th.105 Microsoft is investing $80 billion in data centers,106 Meta is investing $10 billion for its new Louisiana data center project,107 Amazon Web Services is building an $11 billion data center complex in Indiana,108 and it plans to spend $10 billion to expand data center infrastructure in Ohio.109 Emirati billionaire Hussain Sajwani promised a $20 billion investment in the U.S. data center industry in the coming years.110 And President Trump announced that a joint venture between OpenAI, Oracle and SoftBank will invest up to $500 billion to increase AI infrastructure for data centers and power generation.111 While not specific to data centers and technology, Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman pledged a $600 billion investment in the United States over the next four years.112 In January, Chinese startup DeepSeek released an AI model that runs on less advanced chips, leading to speculation on how this might affect investment.113 As DeepSeek’s AI model could potentially be used in applications that gather data, it may face scrutiny from other countries or companies due to the possibility of using the technology to collect sensitive data or for surveillance purposes, and the U.S. House of Representatives has proposed a bill to ban it on government-issued devices.114
This infrastructure is needed. According to a Goldman Sachs report, a ChatGPT query uses ten times as much energy compared as a typical Google search.115 All these data centers are stretching the capabilities of the electrical grid, spurring some providers to construct their own power supplies for these centers.116 This, combined with extreme weather events like the January fires around Los Angeles and Hurricane Helene in the Southeast, could impact availability of electrical products and drive pricing of related materials higher.117 Currently, it is unclear how the executive order from January 20th by the White House that pauses the disbursement of funds appropriated under the 2021 Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act will ultimately affect the demand of these electrical products.118
We’re still figuring out all the ways we can use AI, but it is already being leveraged in many interesting ways, including for construction. Ken Simonson, AGC Chief Economist shared with us that “there is work being done by the U.S. government specific to the Census Bureau to use AI and satellite images to help see new construction starts, with potential enhancements for other information that could provide better real time information on construction activity and types within the U.S.”119
Blyncsy, a software technology subsidiary of Bentley Systems, has developed and released a free near real-time digital map that logs infrastructure assets across the US interstate highway system by collecting dashcam images from networks of fleets driving on the roads daily. You can see things like guardrails, speed limit signs, and work zones to identify areas and items in need of repair.120
This could improve response times on repairs and highway safety.
Where will this take us? Is there a way to leverage these tools in a manner to improve accuracy and enable better and faster management of the construction supply chain?
Impinj’s Supply Chain Integrity Outlook 2025 report found that of 1,000 U.S. supply chain managers surveyed, “91 percent of supply chain managers believe they are equipped to drive accurate supply chain visibility, [but] the reality is 33 percent consistently obtain accurate, real-time inventory data.” Inaccurate data makes it challenging to implement AI effectively within the supply chain,121 so there is much work to do to make this a useful tool in our industry.
DPR, Ever Forward
DPR has been working to improve the supply chain in construction for some time. In the past few years, we’ve made great strides in setting a strategic foundation to implement programs to ensure on-time predictable outcomes, focusing on our supplier relationships, quality, sourcing, planning and inventory, and logistics.
- We sought out supply chain experts, built an agile team, and improved our capabilities to ensure we can meet our commitments.
- We monitor and forecast changes for pricing and lead times to proactively adapt to market changes, and we added services (like near-site storage) to enable quick deployment of solutions that provide flexibility to offset potential impacts.
As we continue to evolve, we prepare to meet the future needs of our customers, front-line teams, and industry in our pursuit to be your partner of choice as we Build Great Things.
Supply Chain Impacts Looking Forward
These impacts are based on actual communications received from our suppliers and distributors, and may be different than the Market Conditions Dashboard, as this information is based on specific products compared to the general data in the Market Conditions Dashboard.
| Impact | Status | Recommendation |
| Domestic Trucking: | Exiting the Holiday season, Truck rates have been modest at 2.2% month over month. However, year-over-year inflation has affected the rate by 13%. We expect a slight increase in rates due to a commercial dip after the holidays of 0 to 1 %. | Continue to look to spot rates for best value unless operating on a well-established lane with volume. |
| Rail: | Year-to-date North American figures show a 2.2% increase in overall traffic. That includes a 0.9% decline in Canada through 48 weeks and a 3% gain in Mexico compared to the same period a year ago. While a modest increase of 3%, further analysis of tariff downstream effects will affect pricing in Q1 2025. | Check with Vendors on timing of products coming on rail from distributors. |
| Ocean Freight/Containers: | A tentative labor deal announced January 8th has avoided a repeat of the U.S. East Coast and Gulf of Mexico port shutdown that occurred this past October. The outcome includes at 62% raise over six years and protecting jobs by limiting automation and establishing a framework for implementing technologies. |
Pricing is likely to increase for East Coast and Gulf of Mexico port cargo. Keep informed on developments and check with vendors on critical international products which are being shipped into Gulf Coast and East Coast ports. |
| Electrical Connectors, Cables, Trays, Conduits: | Increased lead times and potential price increases due to a spike in AI mega data centers and required infrastructure. |
Early procurement and discussions with suppliers’ options to secure material. |
Supply Chain Biggest Impacts Since Last Quarter
| Impact | Cause |
| ACT & Drywall 7% price increase |
Strained pricing from energy, logistics, and raw materials. |
| Insulation (wool & fiberglass): 8-10% price increase |
Strong demand with limited production capacity. |
GUEST CONTRIBUTOR
Ed Lockwood
Logistics Lead
Supply Chain Mitigation Strategies: Spotlight Story
In 2024, our focus included using a modular solution for jobsite office space, which involved international shipping. This required tracking freight, clearing customs, and managing delivery. While not difficult, international shipping does require knowledge of multiple data points and relationships including tariffs, ports, transportation providers, customs brokers, freight forwarders, shippers and receivers. A key part of international shipping is understanding the INCOTERMS, which define who is responsible for costs like transportation, tariffs, and customs.
A problem arose when an air freight shipment needed to support a mega project during the holidays. International shipping during holiday periods, with employees taking time off and during freight arrival, creates the potential of ‘frustrated cargo’ (aka stuck cargo) and additional storage fees.
The shipment, which included connection plates for the modular structures, was sent with the wrong INCOTERM Carriage Paid to (CPT) instead of the agreed-upon Delivery Duty Paid (DDP). This mistake meant we were responsible for customs clearance and tariffs. The supplier had also used an incorrect HTS code, complicating the process further. As a result, the shipment faced delays and storage fees at the airport.
Thanks to our supply chain team’s quick response and collaboration with our customs broker and freight forwarder, we identified the correct Harmonized Tariff Schedule (HTS) number, resolved the issues, and ensured the parts were delivered on time to keep the project mobilization on track.
Chart: Incoterms
Incoterms, widely-used terms of sale, are a set of 11 internationally recognized rules which define the responsibilities of sellers and buyers. Incoterms specify who is responsible for paying for and managing the shipment, insurance, documentation, customs clearance, and other logistical activities.
Links and Resources
Market Conditions
Dashboard
Check out our current conditions interactive dashboard.
Liked our report? Take it with
you.
Download a copy of the report in PDF format.
Resource Materials
Information in this report is compiled from third-party reporting that is available to the public. It is not owned by DPR Construction.
United States Census Bureau
United States Department of Labor
United States Energy Information Administration
United States Chamber of Commerce
United States Bureau of Labor Statistics
Engineering News Record
American Institute of Architects
Cumming Corporation
Dodge Construction Network
Footnotes
i https://www.whitehouse.gov/pre...
ii Declaring a National Energy Emergency – The White House
iii Unleashing American Energy – The White House
1 https://usafacts.org/articles/...
2 When Will the US Egg Crisis End? - Newsweek
3 What products have Red Dye 3? See list of foods affected by FDA ban
4 Dunkin' runs out of donuts
5 Hackers demand France’s Schneider Electric pay a $125k ransom in baguettes
6 Survey: Pros Say Stock Market Investors Should Brace For A Slower Pace Of Returns Over Coming Year | Bankrate
7 Federal Funds Effective Rate (FEDFUNDS) | FRED | St. Louis Fed
8 Current US Inflation Rates: 2000-2024
9 Stock market today: Wall Street rips higher after inflation data and strong bank profits
10 Next CPI Inflation Report Could Reduce 2025 Fed Rate Cut Expectations
11 Civilian unemployment rate
12 U.S. added 256,000 jobs in December as unemployment rate dipped | PBS News
13 Job openings drop 40% YOY | Construction Dive
14 News Releases | ABC: 2024 Construction Workforce Shortage Tops Ha
15 SmartBrief report highlights AEC industry challenges, opportunities for 2025 - SmartBrief
16 Factory Demand Weakens Across Major Economies in October: GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index
17 Construction contractors lobby Trump allies to dodge tariffs - Daily Journal of Commerce
18 What’s the construction economy outlook for 2025? Experts are cautiously optimistic
19 What Trump’s victory could mean for US construction - Construction Briefing
20 France's Macron names Francois Bayrou prime minister after government collapse
21 Austrian Chancellor Nehammer says he will resign after talks on forming a new government fail
22 Germany’s government collapses amid economic turmoil
23 Justin Trudeau resigns: Five things to know about Canada's political crisis
24 South Korea's President Yoon Suk Yeol arrested as agencies probe his short-lived martial law decree
25 Syria's Kurdish community at the center of a post-Assad game of geopolitical tug-of-war
26 Lebanon's parliament elects army commander Joseph Aoun as president, ending a 2-year deadlock
27 Houthi attacks on merchant ships in the Red Sea | Reuters
28 Easing of Houthi sanctions on Red Sea ships could free up capacity but lead to congestion at ports | The Straits Times
29 Israel-Hamas ceasefire live updates: Gaza deal set to free dozens of hostages after more than a year of devastating war
30 Despite truce, Israel has damaged or destroyed hundreds of buildings in Lebanon
31 Yemen's Houthis signal they'll limit attacks to Israeli ships | AP News
32 Trump Will Again Designate Houthis as Terrorists, Reversing Biden
33 https://weather.com/storms/win...
34 https://apnews.com/article/sno...
35 https://www.marinetraffic.com/...
36 House Republicans introduce bill that would let Trump try to buy Greenland
37 Why Does Trump Want To Buy Greenland? What To Know As Danish Prime Minister Says It’s ‘Not For Sale’
38 Global war for control of the ARCTIC: How Russia and China are circling North's frozen expanses amid fears it will become world's new battleground - as Trump eyes control of Greenland | Daily Mail Online
39 Global war for control of the ARCTIC: How Russia and China are circling North's frozen expanses amid fears it will become world's new battleground - as Trump eyes control of Greenland | Daily Mail Online
40 Belt and Road Initiative - Wikipedia
41 In Graphic Detail: The Polar Silk Route | Hakai Magazine
42 China initiates new Silk Road railway bypassing Russia
44 The Navy’s thinking about China’s plan for Taiwan
45 Silicon Island: Assessing Taiwan’s Importance to U.S. Economic Growth and Security
46 Map Shows Why Taiwan Is So Important to the World - Newsweek
47 China: MI5 and FBI heads warn of ‘immense’ threat
48 A Conflict in Congo - The New York Times
49 China's curbs on exports of strategic minerals | Reuters
50 Q4 2024 Market Conditions Report | DPR Construction
51 LA Wildfires Construction Impact - Cumming Group
52 STEEL | NYSE American Steel Index Overview | MarketWatch
53 Iron Ore Prices Face Downward Pressure in 2025 | OilPrice.com
54 How U.S. Steel’s long, painful decline turned into a political lightning rod
55 Biden Extends Deadline for Nippon's US Steel Bid, Keeping Deal Alive
56 US Steel CEO warns failed sale to Nippon Steel would lead to steel mill closures | Fox Business
57 Cleveland-Cliffs partners with Nucor to potentially bid for US Steel
58 New player arrives in US Steel-Nippon takeover saga with the goal of quashing it | AP News
59 Trump to announce 25% steel and aluminum tariffs in latest trade escalation | Reuters
60 POSCO shuts down wire rod mill amid global oversupply and rising imports
61 Oreaco
62 Liberty Steel in Peoria shutters wire mill, furloughs more workers
63 Chicago's Wheatland Tube plant to close in November, affecting 237 employees - CBS Chicago
64 Global Steel Wire Rod Prices Decline Amid Weak Demand and Market Uncertainty
65 Section 232 – Not All Quotas Are Created Equal | International Trade Law
66 https://www.msn.com/en-us/news...
67 The Trump Tariffs: Pros, Cons & Global Impact | EV Magazine
68 FACT SHEET: President Biden Takes Action to Protect American Workers and Businesses from China’s Unfair Trade Practices | The White House
69 Americans Are Still Paying for the Trump-Biden Tariffs
70 Americans Are Still Paying for the Trump-Biden Tariffs
71 Americans Are Still Paying for the Trump-Biden Tariffs
72 International Trade Commission Rescinds Tariffs On Aluminum Restrictions – The Metals Service Center Institute
73 Trump signs order to impose tariffs on Canada, China and Mexico
74 https://www.msn.com/en-us/news...
75 China counters with tariffs on US products. It will also investigate Google
76 Trump to announce 25% steel and aluminum tariffs in latest trade escalation | Reuters
77 https://www.msn.com/en-us/news...
78 https://www.msn.com/en-us/news...
79 What Will Cost the Most Under Trump's Tariffs?
80 Trump signs order to impose tariffs on Canada, China and Mexico
81 Trump to announce 25% steel and aluminum tariffs in latest trade escalation | Reuters
82 Who are the US’s top trade partners? | USAFacts
83 Trump's proposed tariffs would raise prices for these products, experts say - ABC News
84 Who are the US’s top trade partners? | USAFacts
85 Most Valuable US Imports & Exports with Mexico
86 United States Imports from China - 2025 Data 2026 Forecast 1991-2023 Historical
87 Q4 2024 Market Conditions Report | DPR Construction
88 US Most Valuable Imports & Exports with Canada
89 Construction input prices hold steady, but contractors brace for hikes | Construction Dive
90 Steve Madden just drastically changed its business to avoid Trump’s tariffs
91 Understanding the Implications of Trump Tariffs on Global Trade - SupplyChain 360
92 Key Bridge rebuild to begin this month | Construction Dive
93 Number of U.S. bridges in "fair" condition continues to rise | Equipment World
94 https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/08...
95 Red Sea crisis: How global trade is being upended by attacks on container ships | CNN Business
96 Easing of Houthi sanctions on Red Sea ships could free up capacity but lead to congestion at ports | The Straits Times
97 https://www.reuters.com/world/...
98 Panama, familiar with US intervention, bristles at Trump's comments on canal | AP News
99 Why Cargo Theft Is Rising in the U.S. — and What You Can Do to Protect Your Shipments
100 Slight drop in trucking jobs in December wraps up overall down employment year - FreightWaves
101 Canada's crude oil has an increasingly significant role in U.S. refineries - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
102 Trump Orders US Waters Open to Oil Drilling, Reversing Biden
103 A global data center construction boom? It’s still happening – REJournals
104 Biden Signs Executive Order To Bolster US AI Infrastructure
105 https://time.com/7209689/trump...
106 Microsoft to Invest $80 Billion in AI Data Centers in Fiscal 2025
107 https://www.constructiondive.c...
108 Amazon subsidiary pledges $11 billion to build more data and AI infrastructure in Georgia
109 Amazon investing another $10 billion in Ohio-based data centers
110 Emirati billionaire to invest $20 bln in US data centers, Trump says | Reuters
111 What Is the Trump-Backed Stargate AI Project and Why Is It Controversial?
112 https://apnews.com/article/sau...
113 Nvidia, TSMC, ASML Among Tech Stocks Sinking on DeepSeek Threat
114 https://www.bing.com/search?pg...
115 Driven by AI demand, Microsoft investing $80B in data centers
116 Data center power demand will double over the next five years
117 LA fires damage power, sewer and water infrastructure | Construction Dive
118 https://www.newsandsentinel.co...
119 AGC, Ken Simonson, 11/25/24
120 Bentley Systems subsidiary releases free digital map of US interstate infrastructure assets - Construction Briefing
121 Impinj: Top Headaches for Supply Chain Managers in 2025 - RFID JOURNAL
122 https://coyote.com/resources/r... accessed on December 9, 2024
123 https://www.freightwaves.com/n...; accessed on December 9, 2024
124 Second US port strike averted as union, employers reach deal | Reuters
Photos: Danny Sandler
Phil Bartkowski
National Preconstruction Leader
Tim Jed
Posted on February 21, 2025
Last Updated March 4, 2025
File Download
